Africa is already experiencing the impacts of climate change. Temperatures are rising while extreme heat, droughts and intense rainfall are disrupting livelihoods, infrastructure and food systems across the continent. These hazards are expected to become more frequent and severe unless global emissions decline rapidly (IPCC, 2022). Climate risks are no longer a future concern; they increasingly shape decisions on infrastructure, urban development, public finance and investment planning. For Africa, where hard-won development gains are being rapidly eroded by climate shocks, strengthening resilience fast enough to stay ahead of the next crisis is critical.
Yet, Africa has an opportunity that most regions don’t. As much of Africa's future infrastructure is yet to be built, climate mitigation action presents a unique strategic opportunity to leapfrog traditional carbon-intensive development pathways and pursue resilient, low-carbon development that improves the lives of people through cleaner air, improved health, green jobs and greater energy security. By designing infrastructure and systems for tomorrow’s climate and technologies, Africa can avoid the large retrofitting and transition costs many countries will have to navigate.
Seizing this opportunity doesn’t need to wait on perfect data. However, better evidence would improve the chances of success. Across much of Africa, crucial data on climate hazards, adaptation readiness and mitigation policies remain fragmented or unavailable, limiting the ability of policymakers to target investments, assess progress and identify what works. Improving the evidence base can help ensure climate investments are well targeted, progress can be measured, and the most impactful climate action can be scaled up.
New joint analysis by GGGI, the OECD, the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club, and the World Bank Group helps close these information gaps by bringing together climate hazard, adaptation readiness, and mitigation policy data across 28 African countries, which together account for approximately 73 percent of the continent’s greenhouse gas emissions. All quantitative findings below apply to this sample, not Africa as a whole.
“Africa’s climate challenge is not only about exposure to risk, but also about readiness — the ability of institutions, policies and investment systems to translate climate information into practical action for people, cities and economies.” - Sanghyup Kim, Executive Director, Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)
Hazards are outpacing adaptation readiness. Average temperatures reached a record 1.3 degrees Celsius above the 1981 to 2010 baseline in 2024. Heat stress already affects half of the countries analyzed, with Sahelian countries among the most vulnerable. Extreme precipitation has intensified more than 150 percent over recent decades, and cropland soil moisture shows a persistent downward trend consistent with worsening agricultural drought (Figure 1). Readiness varies substantially even among countries at similar income levels, indicating that income is a partial but incomplete determinant of adaptation capacity and underscoring the importance of climate evidence.
“Climate hazards become development risks because they intersect with people, livelihoods and infrastructure. Cities are at the forefront of this. The choices made today on urban growth and transport corridors will determine whether future development locks in vulnerability or builds resilience.” - Nana Touré, Director, OECD Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC).
Figure 1. Climate hazards are intensifying across Africa.
Note: All three indicators are shown as indices, with the value in 1990 set equal to 100. Each subsequent year represents the relative change compared to 1990. For example, a value of 150 means a 50% increase relative to 1990.
Source: OECD (2025), “Climate-related hazards: Historical exposure to extreme temperature”, OECD Environment Statistics (dataset); OECD (2025), “Climate-related hazards: Historical exposure to extreme precipitation”, OECD Environment Statistics (dataset); OECD (2025), “Climate-related hazards: Historical exposure to drought”, OECD Environment Statistics (dataset).
Africa’s urbanization is a closing window, not an open-ended opportunity. The urban population is projected to roughly double by 2050, from around 700 million to 1.4 billion (OECD et al., 2025). By 2050, thousands of West African cities, including 2,712 small cities alone, are projected to face more than 180 hot days annually. Today, 42 percent of West Africa’s main road network already lies within extreme precipitation zones. Because most of this urban infrastructure has not yet been built, planning decisions made today will determine whether cities lock in future climate risk as well as large socioeconomic costs of transport disruptions, or build resilience while the costs are still relatively low.
“While many countries face the high cost of retrofitting their infrastructure and economic systems, there is a chance for African countries to leapfrog and invest in smart development, building on the opportunities offered by renewable power, climate-smart agriculture, and more resilient and efficient cities.” - Stephane Hallegatte, Chief Economic Adviser for Climate, World Bank Group.
Climate policy has expanded, but crucial gaps remain. Climate mitigation action has expanded rapidly across Africa, with the number of recorded policies more than doubling between 2010 and 2024, particularly in the years following the Paris Agreement (Figure 2). Progress has stagnated since 2021, as in other regions. Some countries are emerging as global policy innovators. Ethiopia became the first country in the world to ban imports of new passenger vehicles with internal combustion engines, while Uganda has committed to electrifying buses and motorcycles by 2040. Yet important gaps remain: transport and waste remain under-addressed despite their growing emissions footprint, and market-based instruments such as carbon pricing still account for only a small share of mitigation action compared to other world regions.
Figure 2. Climate action in Africa has expanded rapidly, but momentum has slowed
Note: Bars show the total number of principal mitigation policies recorded in the CAPMF by stringency level (low/medium/high) for 2010-2024 across African countries.
Source: Based on data from OECD, IEA, ITF, World Bank, GGGI and others using the methodology of Nachtigall et al. (2022); (dataset).
“Africa's climate transition is about far more than reducing emissions. It is an opportunity to build resilient, inclusive and sustainable economies. Better data and stronger evidence can help countries set their own priorities, direct investment where it can have the greatest impact and scale up solutions that deliver tangible benefits for people and economies.” - Jaime de Bourbon de Parme, OECD Environment Director
Closing Africa’s climate data gaps requires action on two fronts. The OECD’s Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF) fills an important gap by providing the first harmonized database of mitigation policies covering more than 100 countries, including 28 African countries. The database draws on a collaborative data collection effort involving the OECD and its Sahel and West Africa Club as well as the GGGI and the World Bank Group (WBG). Yet no equivalent framework exists for adaptation policies, making it difficult to compare progress, identify good practices, and assess what works. While helpful repositories of adaptation-related case studies have recently been developed, collecting harmonized, and quantifiable adaptation actions can be particularly useful in further strengthening resilience, targeting investments more effectively, and monitoring climate action to ensure it keeps pace with escalating risks. At the same time, further strengthening the evidence base on mitigation policies will help governments identify which policies reduce emissions most effectively while delivering tangible benefits such as cleaner air, better health, greater energy security and more resilient livelihoods.
The next climate shock is inevitable. The choice is whether countries have the evidence, policies and institutions in place before it arrives. Strengthening the evidence base for both mitigation and adaptation will help ensure we capture all opportunities for smart development, which can deliver more resilience, sustainability and ultimately better lives.
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