This study examines the ecological and socioeconomic effects of the Chinese Natural Forest Conservation Programme (NFCP) and the Grain to Green Programme (GTGP), which initially invested more than US$95 billion in forest conservation and related economic development efforts over thirteen years (1998 to 2010). The NFCP conserves natural forests through logging bans and afforestation with incentives to forest enterprises, whereas the GTGP converts cropland on steep slopes to forest and grassland by providing farmers with grain and cash subsidies.
Overall, the study found that both programmes have already demonstrated substantial progress, including halting commercial harvesting in natural forests, decreasing the overall amount of timber harvested, converting cropland to forest/grassland, increasing vegetative cover, enhancing carbon sequestration, reducing soil erosion and water surface runoff, and improving wildlife habitats. For instance, implementation of the NFCP led to a halt in commercial harvesting of natural forests in 13 provinces by 2000, and the GTGP had converted almost 9 million ha of cropland into forest/grassland and had afforested 11.7 million ha of barren land by the end of 2006. Moreover, after five years of GTGP implementation, converted plots are reported to have reduced surface water runoff by 75–85% and soil erosion by 85–96% compared with croplands on steep slopes without the programme.
However, these programs have also generated some negative environmental and economic consequences, including an increase in timber imports from other countries despite declines in domestic production as well as major economic losses among some forest enterprises despite widespread shifts to alternative jobs (e.g. forest management, plantation farming, tourism). For instance, between 2004 and 2005, there was an increase of 10.4% in imported logs, much of which was used to make products (e.g. furniture) to export to developed countries, and by 2001, the value of unpaid loans reached 12.9 billion yuan. In this regard, the report finds that the GTGP was more effective at generating positive socioeconomic impacts than the NFCP—while the NFCP cut off income from timber harvesting for many workers, the GTGP directly benefited farmers in 30 million households through its subsidies. However, there remains the risk that, if these subsidies end, some of the converted forest/grassland will be converted back to cropland and natural forests will be logged again.
Given China’s intention to expend these programs for several more years, this report also provides several recommendations for making these programs more effective going forward, including:
- Effective Compensation. Compensation through the programme’s subsidies needs to be adjusted so that it is determined by multiple factors (e.g. ecosystem values, risks to ecosystem services, stakeholders’ basic needs, costs and benefits), designed to change over time as market prices of agricultural products change, and is provided with a long-term legal basis (e.g. through the eco-compensation system under China’s 11th Five-Year Plan). In addition, it is recommended that the programmes offer job training to farmers and forest enterprises.
- Systematic Planning. Strategic planning at the national level needs to be better integrated with detailed planning at the local level and should include more feedback from local people. Also, the GTGP and NFCP should be complemented by other conservation and economic development programs to improve their efficiency and effectiveness, particularly those focused on the generation of alternative off-farm income.
- Diversified Funding. To reduce the financial burden on central and local governments and help ensure their long-term sustainability, these programmes should establish endowments for ecosystem services as well as market-based mechanisms for financing.
- Integrated Research. Instead of conducting separate evaluations by ecologists and social scientists, these programmes should be evaluated as a whole, covering both human and natural systems, to produce new insights on their interactive effects.
- Comprehensive Monitoring. A combination of high-resolution remote sensing data and social surveys could help ensure accurate reporting, and a web-based nationwide database would facilitate the synthesis and dissemination of information for adaptive management of these programs.
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