The 9th edition of the Emission Gap Report 2018 assesses how countries' mitigation actions and pledges are affecting the global greenhouse gas emissions trend, comparing it against the emission reductions necessary to limit global warming to well below 2°C and 1.5°C in accordance with the Paris Agreement.
The report focuses on providing information relevant to the Talona Dialogue, offering an updated assessment of the important roles and potential contributions of the non-state and subnational actors (NSA) to climate change, and updating and improving the gap assessment, using most recent studies and scenarios. The report is organized in seven chapters. Chapter 1 gives the general introduction to the report. Chapter 2 presents an update of current global emissions, assesses the trends and progress of G20 members towards achieving pledged 2020 emission reductions, the Cancun pledges, and NDC emission targets. It also considers whether global greenhouse gas emissions show signs of peaking. Chapter 3 provides an updated assessment of global emission levels in 2030 consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, based on the significantly expanded set of new least-cost scenarios, which were prepared in the context of the IPCC special report. Updated estimates of global emission levels in 2030 under different policy and NDC implementation scenarios are also provided. Chapter 4, 5, 6 and 7 explore the measures to bridge the emission gaps through policies, non-state and subnational actors and acceleration of innovation.
Some of the findings of the report include:
- Current commitments expressed in the NDCs are inadequate to bridge the emissions gap in 2030.
- Global greenhouse gas emissions show no signs of peaking.
- The emission gap has increased compared to 2017 as a result of the expanded and diverse literature on 1.5°C and 2°C pathways prepared for the IPCC special report.
- To bridge the 2030 emissions gap and ensure long-term decarbonization consistent with the Paris Agreement goals, countries must enhance their mitigation ambition.
- Non-state and sub-national action plays an important role in delivering national pledges.
- Fiscal policy reform can play a key role in creating strong incentives for low-carbon investments and reducing GHG emissions.
- Accelerating innovation is a key component of any attempt to bridge the emissions gap.