Emissions Gap Report 2025

The sixteenth Emissions Gap Report finds that full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) now implies 2.3-2.5°C warming this century, while current policies point to 2.8°C—an improvement from last year’s 2.6–2.8°C and 3.1°C. 

Despite this modest progress, the projected overshoot remains substantial and heightens climate risks. 

The report stresses that only faster and deeper emissions cuts can limit the overshoot and keep a return to 1.5°C by 2100 within reach, though doing so will be extremely challenging.