This paper discusses the extent to which the predicted growth of aviation in a carbon-constrained world is possible given the known operational and technological options, and in particular the extent to which aviation biofuels form part of the answer. Even without a carbon constraint, aviation faces significant challenges. If capping global greenhouse gas emissions remains a serious goal, then aviation‘s problems intensify. With these challenges in mind, some fundamental questions are raised, for instance:
- Given fossil-fuel resource constraints and rising costs, is it realistic to believe that growth in aviation will continue unabated?
- If there is a limited amount of additional capacity in the atmosphere to store human produced greenhouse gas emissions, should airlines be given some preferential access to this resource as a result of their limited abatement options?
- What is the potential for biofuel production to be scaled-up to the extent needed to meet future demand for aviation fuel?
- What would be the effect of adding aviation demand for low-carbon biofuel production to government-driven demand for biofuels by other transport sectors?
- If there is a limited capacity to produce biofuels sustainably and cost-effectively on a large scale, should most or all of it be dedicated to airline travel, as other transport sectors have a larger range of abatement options?
Standard economic analysis would argue in favour of treating aviation no differently from any other sector, in which case these questions have relatively straightforward answers. That has, however, not been the history of policy interventions in the aviation sector. While this paper does not seek to provide answers to these questions, they are unlikely to be far from the surface in the on-going debate about how to treat greenhouse gas emissions from aviation going forward.