This paper explores the relative average GHG intensity of production of selected goods in different world regions and the potential for regions to access low-GHG fuels and feedstocks needed to expand low-GHG production. While a complete analysis of shifting trade patterns would assess the economic implications, including the scale effect, the authors present a simplified approach which allows them to gauge what conditions might enable countries to be future low-GHG producers.
They begin by looking at the emissions embodied in trade (Section 2), based on a multiregional input-output model, to help identify significant trade flows for further analysis. Section 3 then examines differences in GHG-intensity among regions for some of the categories identified, while Section 4 asks whether and how shifting the location of steel production could reduce global GHGs. Section 5 assesses a range of national and international policies that could be used to shift trade patterns. Section 6 summarizes the results and identifies areas for further research.