The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions to combat it, not least lockdowns, have had severe economic consequences, leading to a significant drop in economic activity. Recovery will be a long-term process and economic activity will likely be affected even after the health crisis is over. The effects of COVID-19 on economic growth will affect the pressure of economic activity on the environment.
This paper contributes to this emerging literature on the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and recovery on environmental pressures by using a state-of-the-art large-scale modelling tool to identify sectoral and regional shocks to the economy from the pandemic and the associated lockdown and stimulus (recovery) packages. By linking economic activity and environmental pressures, projections can be made of the medium- and long-term impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, materials use and land use change. These linkages are made by associating environmental pressures to the specific input in production and consumption.