Too Late, Too Sudden: Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy and Systemic Risk

Organisation:
European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)

Keeping global warming below 2°C will require substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades.

This report highlights that leaving the transition to a low-carbon economy too late risks affecting  the economy of the European Union in three ways:

  • first, a sudden transition away from fossil-fuel energy could harm GDP, as alternative sources of energy would be restricted in supply and more expensive at the margin;
  • second, there could be a sudden repricing of carbon-intensive assets, which are financed in large part by debt;
  • third, there could be a concomitant rise in the incidence of natural catastrophes related to climate change, raising general insurers’ and reinsurers’ liabilities.

A gradual transition to a low-carbon economy is therefore seen as the best option; this choice would be better manageable and would prevent energy costs from rising abruptly. Furthermore, additional policy intervention and investments in low-carbon technology are likely to help in preventing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from growing in the medium term.   

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