Sustainable Development Under Threat
Since December 2019, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has quickly spread all over the world. In March 2020, it was declared a global pandemic by the WHO, having affected virtually all countries and territories. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development are under threat everywhere, as nations face unprecedented health and economic challenges.
Numerous countries—with extremely varied economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and health service attributes and capabilities—have adopted different and unprecedented measures to limit the spread of the virus. These measures have already had an enormous impact not only on the spread of COVID-19 but also on economies, employment, business, and community life, posing special risks for the poor, the elderly and the most vulnerable. Old work patterns, supply chains, social arrangements, and human relationships are changing, with long-term consequences for how we behave and organize our lives in the future.
Existing Tools Can Support Risk Management and Responses
Much can be learned by applying data analytics tools and methodologies to the large amounts of emerging data, to develop better-informed response measures. Risk management is key, including forecasting, risk modeling, simulation, assessment and mitigation, as well as balancing economic, public health, social and environmental issues. Equally important is the need to harmonize COVID-19 response measures with existing issues like poverty, inequality, hunger, disease, resource scarcities, etc. within the UN SDG framework.
Some basic examples show the complexity of potential tradeoffs. In the US, the lockdowns gave rise to a “lives versus economy” debate. To the poor, “economy” means “livelihoods”, whereas to the wealthy it means “stock markets”. Paradoxically, on 2 April, when 6.6 million workers had filed for unemployment benefits, all 3 market indices (DJ, S&P, Nasdaq) rose! At the global level, policies need to be determined even more carefully. COVID-19 has killed about 170 thousand to date (mainly elderly people in richer countries), whereas at least 7 million people die of hunger annually worldwide (over half are children in poorer countries), and 8-9 million others die from air and water pollution (mostly the poor and vulnerable). Yet COVID-19 seems to be receiving far more attention than other issues. First, while COVID-19 is a threat deserving global cooperation and attention, there is need to ensure that responses are harmonized with actions aimed at addressing other longstanding problems (SDG) facing humanity – especially in poorer countries. Second, badly thought-out policies that adversely affect the vulnerable poor may kill more than the coronavirus (ie. “lives versus lives”).
Rebuilding Better
UN Secretary-General António Guterres reminds us that everything we do during and after this crisis must be with a strong focus on building more equal, inclusive and sustainable economies and societies that are more resilient in the face of pandemics, climate change and the many other global challenges we face. He states that “the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis must lead to a different economy”.
So how do we reconcile public policy and green growth to build sustainable socio-economic and environmental systems in a post-COVID 19 world? Green growth – pursuing economic development in an environmentally sustainable manner – is crucial for that recovery process. But for green growth to succeed as a transformative sustainable development strategy, it must also include social gains like inclusion, good governance, and equity.
Balancing Economic, Environmental and Social Dimensions
The sustainable development triangle requires us to harmonize the economic, environmental and social dimensions. A key first step is to achieve green growth by balancing the economy and environment. The next step is to also incorporate social aspects, and achieve balanced inclusive green growth, or BIGG. This will improve social resilience, to help overcome COVID-19 and other challenges.
Stylized Figure 1 shows how climate risk varies with economic development. Carbon emissions rise more rapidly during early development (AB), and taper off when per capita incomes are higher (BC). Green growth requires that industrial countries (exceeding irreversible environmental safe limits) should reduce environmental damage, by decarbonizing along future growth path CE. Emerging and developing economies could find their own GG “tunnel” (below safe limits), by learning from past experiences of the industrialized world. This approach also applies to other natural resources like energy, food and water.
However, COVID-19 has shown that green growth alone will not ensure sustainability, since worsening social problems like inequality and exclusion will make social systems more vulnerable. Therefore, integrating social concerns into the economy-environment nexus is a key second step, by selecting green growth paths that are inclusive, pro-poor and socially resilient, ie. BIGG paths.
The BIGG approach is well suited to the post-2015 and post-COVID-19 period since it helps to operationalize the SDGs and 2030 Agenda; the SDGs provide a basic framework of indicators and targets, which describe the BIGG path to sustainable development.
The coronavirus is changing the world around us, with long-term consequences for how we behave and organize our future activities. Some fear that the unequal status quo will be reinforced while others hope for a better world to emerge. We must unite to bring about the latter outcome, by actively seeking BIGG policies that simultaneously yield economic, environmental and social gains.
Mohan Munasinghe is Founder Chairman of the Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, and Vice Chair of IPCC-AR4 that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. A leading expert on sustainable development, climate change, energy and environment, he first proposed at Rio 1992 the “sustainomics” framework that applies transdisciplinary thinking to make development more sustainable.