Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations

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International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions where climate change is expected to push the most people into poverty if no concrete climate and development action takes place by 2050. The impacts of climate change could be felt most immensely by those living in fragile and conflict-affected settings in the region.

This paper investigates the impact of temperature anomalies on income per capita growth using a dynamic-panel model based on 20 fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa from 1980 to 2019, and analyzes the impact of economic conditions on climate change through their effects on greenhouse gas emissions growth rate.

The paper also provides a series of scenarios to evaluate the potential impact of policy responses (mitigation) to climate change, focusing on the incidence on fragile states in the region.

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Africa
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Key search term :
fragile states
climate risk

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