Today the United Nations Environment Programme launched the Executive Summary of its Emissions Gap report. The Emissions Gap reports have been released in advance of the COP climate summits since COP15 in 2009 in Copenhagen.
Jacqueline McGlade, UNEP’s Chief Scientist, explained that this year UNEP has undergone analysis of the Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by countries to answer the question what the impact of the INDCs will be on global emissions. Additionally, UNEP has compared the expected outcomes of the INDCs to the 2C or 1.5C by 2100 targets to determine the emissions gap that exists and has identified actions that may be taken to fill that gap. Below are a few of the key takeaways from the report:
Early action is important
While the UNFCCC process will be in a “pledging environment” until 2020, early action remains important. Business as usual estimates saw emissions rising steadily and reaching 65Gt by 2030 but taking into account the early Cancun pledges made, this number has plateaued in 2014 to approximately 52.7Gt and would reach 60Gt by 2030.
The report notes that early action will, in fact, have an effect as it prevents technology lock in and escalating costs of abatement. In other words, immediate action will be cheaper and help to avoid lock-in.
Net zero required by 2060-2075
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that a cumulative maximum carbon budget of 1000Gt is required to keep warming below 2C. With current trends this means that globally, emissions will need to be reduced to net zero by 2060-2075.
42 Gt by 2030 is the magic number
The median emission level in 2030 scenarios that has a >66% chance of keeping temperature increase to below 2 °C by the end of the century is 42 Gt.
The emissions gap varies depending on INDC conditions
The INDCs are country-determined pledges and include different kinds of targets and conditions. Two distinct kinds of pledges exist – conditional and unconditional. Unconditional targets are what countries can achieve at current conditions and conditional targets require additional support, financing, etc. to meet. The emissions gap report projects the following levels by 2030:
- Baseline – 65Gt
- Current policies (i.e. Cancun pledges) – 60Gt
- Unconditional INDC pledges – 56Gt
- Conditional INDC pledges – 54Gt
With 42Gt being the magic number this means a 14Gt (unconditional) to 12Gt (conditional) gap. If full implementation of conditional INDCs were achieved an average estimated temperature increase of 3-3.5C by 2100 would occur (66% likelihood).
There are actions that can close these gaps
Assessment of recent studies done by UNEP point to a several actions that can be taken to try to close the gap, including:
- Enhanced energy efficiency
- Expanded use of renewable energy technologies
- Agriculture and forestry related initiatives also have potential up to 9Gt but are likely to be constrained by economic and land use factors
In addition, UNEP highlighted the potential of International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) such as cities, cooperatives, private sector initiatives which are not accounted for in the INDCs as a potential area of action that could close the gap up to 2.5-4Gt by 2020.
INDC’s impact is not fully measured by numbers
While the INDCs do leave an emissions gap, the process and way of thinking that they started has an impact all its own. The INDCs are country endorsed plans, and involved social and political processes within countries that increased engagement in the global climate process. The report notes the positive sign, that they have already led to real policies and actions being galvanized.
Additionally, the process has raised the importance of the links between climate and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs enhanced cooperation on UN agency mandates and have been a common goal for countries to rally behind.
To learn more, read the Executive Summary here.