The Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) methodology, developed by UNDP, helps public and private decision-makers design and implement sustainable sectoral development policies that incorporate ecosystem services' value into sustainable economic development. The TSA assesses the impact of two management scenarios - the business as usual scenario (BAU) and a more sustainable path - identified in consultation with stakeholders in Ecuador's artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector. The TSA proposes to transfer the gold recuperation process from artisanal and small-scale miners to improved gold processing plants. The Ministry of Energy and Mining of Ecuador is the core client of the TSA study.
The sector is characterized by limited economic opportunities and access to financing, which produces technological inefficiencies. In this context, the Ministry of Mining, with PAGE support, identified an opportunity to apply a TSA study to assess and improve artisanal and small-scale mining practices by implementing the Responsible Mineral Processing (RMP) approach to increase the profitability of the gold supply chain. This alternative approach also provides options for improving government regulations.