The feasibility of green growth is studied in the context of climate change. As carbon emissions are easier to quantify than many other types of environmental pressure, it will be possible to reach a more definite conclusion about the likelihood of green growth than has been possible in the long-standing historical debate on growth versus the environment. This paper calculates the rate of decoupling between gross domestic product (GDP) and GHG emissions needed to achieve internationally agreed climate targets. Next, eight arguments are considered that together suggest that fast decoupling will be very difficult. Subsequently, this study examines the main lines of research used by proponents of green growth to support their viewpoint, including theoretical arguments, exercises with integrated assessment models, and studies of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It will be concluded that decoupling as a main or single strategy to combine economic and environmental aims should be judged as taking a very large risk with our common future. To minimize this risk we need to seriously consider reducing our dependence on growth.
The study is far from an exhaustive examination of these issues. In many areas, the analysis is speculative, aimed at raising questions and suggesting areas where domestic and international policy makers may need to consider undertaking further analysis. Above all, it should be stressed that the study raises these matters at a very general level. Whether any given governmental measure is consistent with WTO rules is a highly contextual question, that may well depend on the exact design features of that particular measure, and its broader context – regulatory, technological and commercial. Thus, nothing in this study should be considered as a judgment that any actual measure of any particular government violates WTO rules.
The study has also been prepared at a time when countries across the income spectrum are taking a fresh look at local content requirements, after having largely phased them out in traditional strategic industries such as fossil fuel energy and automobiles. Questions explored include:
The need to find a suitable alternative to our present carbon-based production pattern is currently the subject of international discussion, not least because economic growth usually goes hand in hand with increased resource consumption. As part of such an alternative, all economic decisions would have to take into account environmental concerns and the value of natural assets. The discussion is mainly focused on different concepts of green growth, now a buzzword. The hope is that we can find a solution to our world's most pressing issues, one that enables us to achieve economic growth while conserving ecosystems, preventing environmental degradation and contributing to the aims of climate stability and poverty reduction.
In addition to the important debate on the different ways of achieving this, it is also essential to discuss how we can effectively map the achievement of green growth. A number of international organisations have proposed sets of indicators for measuring green growth, and initiatives such as the Green Growth Knowledge Platform (GGKP) have been set up to pool existing knowledge, identify gaps in knowledge and provide a platform for discussion.
