The feasibility of green growth is studied in the context of climate change. As carbon emissions are easier to quantify than many other types of environmental pressure, it will be possible to reach a more definite conclusion about the likelihood of green growth than has been possible in the long-standing historical debate on growth versus the environment. This paper calculates the rate of decoupling between gross domestic product (GDP) and GHG emissions needed to achieve internationally agreed climate targets. Next, eight arguments are considered that together suggest that fast decoupling will be very difficult. Subsequently, this study examines the main lines of research used by proponents of green growth to support their viewpoint, including theoretical arguments, exercises with integrated assessment models, and studies of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It will be concluded that decoupling as a main or single strategy to combine economic and environmental aims should be judged as taking a very large risk with our common future. To minimize this risk we need to seriously consider reducing our dependence on growth.
The study is far from an exhaustive examination of these issues. In many areas, the analysis is speculative, aimed at raising questions and suggesting areas where domestic and international policy makers may need to consider undertaking further analysis. Above all, it should be stressed that the study raises these matters at a very general level. Whether any given governmental measure is consistent with WTO rules is a highly contextual question, that may well depend on the exact design features of that particular measure, and its broader context – regulatory, technological and commercial. Thus, nothing in this study should be considered as a judgment that any actual measure of any particular government violates WTO rules.
The study has also been prepared at a time when countries across the income spectrum are taking a fresh look at local content requirements, after having largely phased them out in traditional strategic industries such as fossil fuel energy and automobiles. Questions explored include:
The need to find a suitable alternative to our present carbon-based production pattern is currently the subject of international discussion, not least because economic growth usually goes hand in hand with increased resource consumption. As part of such an alternative, all economic decisions would have to take into account environmental concerns and the value of natural assets. The discussion is mainly focused on different concepts of green growth, now a buzzword. The hope is that we can find a solution to our world's most pressing issues, one that enables us to achieve economic growth while conserving ecosystems, preventing environmental degradation and contributing to the aims of climate stability and poverty reduction.
In addition to the important debate on the different ways of achieving this, it is also essential to discuss how we can effectively map the achievement of green growth. A number of international organisations have proposed sets of indicators for measuring green growth, and initiatives such as the Green Growth Knowledge Platform (GGKP) have been set up to pool existing knowledge, identify gaps in knowledge and provide a platform for discussion.
As the world economy slowly recovers from one of the longest and most severe global slowdowns in history, there has been growing interest in how fluctuations in economic activity interact with climate change policy. Of particular interest is how carbon pricing instruments, such as emissions trading systems and carbon taxes, are designed and operate. This policy brief analyses the relevant empirical evidence and theoretical research on how carbon pricing instruments function in recessions and booms.
This paper proposes a simple index of economic progress that weighs in the monetary cost induced by climate change mitigation policies as well as the health benefits arising from the reduction in local air pollution. The shadow price of pollution is calculated indirectly through its impact on life expectancy. Taking into account the health benefits of mitigation policies significantly reduces their monetary cost in China and India, as well as in countries with large fossil-based energy-producing sectors (Australia, Canada and the United States).
This handbook describes in detail how trade can affect the environment, for better and for worse, and how environmental concern can work through the trading system to foster or frustrate development, in both rich and poor countries. It is aimed mainly at those with some knowledge about trade, environment or development, but who are not expert on the intersection of the three. It aims to serve as a practical reference tool for policy-makers and practitioners, and be equally useful to the media and civil society.